PBC’s Middle-Income Inflation Monitor June 2026
Although the SARB held the policy rate at 7% in July (a much-welcomed decision), it was a close call, with two of its six committee members voting for a hike. If global oil prices stay high, the SARB may be forced to hike again before the end of the year - a move that would compound the cost‑of‑living pressures on households already burdened by elevated debt‑service costs. The bottom line? The middle‑class squeeze is not just a temporary fuel shock. It is also driven by structural costs (housing, transport, and insurance) that do not respond quickly to interest rate changes. Even as headline inflation cools in future, the burden on Middle‑Income households will persist.
Essential household expenses continue to rise faster than discretionary spending, placing increasing strain on middle-income families.
The Middle-Class Squeeze Indicator widened sharply as accelerating core necessities such as transport, housing and insurance diverged from slightly cooling non-essential inflation.
PBC's Cost of Living Dashboard tracks these pressures monthly, giving households and policymakers a clear picture of where middle-income budgets are tightening most.
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